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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDABR Received: 2014-07-31 08:54 UTC
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667 FXUS63 KABR 310854 AFDABR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 354 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY STREAMING SOUTHEAST OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVERS. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED UPSTREAM IN WESTERN ND MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD. HI RES MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS AS WELL...BUT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THEY ALSO BLOW UP SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN CWA SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TREND. ON FRIDAY...WEAK SFC LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SUBTLE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHEAR. HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL SEE GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. CENTRAL SD WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS. THE RIDGE WILL GET DAMPENED SOME BEGINNING MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WAVES LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WILL THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE COMING AROUND TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION...SO WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION...WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVE IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO THE LOW AREAL COVERAGE...NO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...PARKIN AVIATION...PARKIN WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN