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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-07-30 23:28 UTC
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174 FXUS64 KEWX 302328 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 628 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014 .AVIATION... VFR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 08Z WITH LOW MVFR CIGS TO APPROACH IFR CRITERIA FROM 09Z THROUGH 15Z OVER TERMINALS ALONG I-35. A COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TOWARD THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS FROPA TIME LINE MAY NEED TO BE ACCELERATED SHOULD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DAYTIME CONVECTION OCCUR. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IN THE EARLY EVENING FOR THE I-35 TERMINALS... WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 21Z THROUGH THE ENDS OF THE TAF PERIODS OVER ALL TERMINALS. SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD EXCEED 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BUT MOST OF THE NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT MUCH MORE TODAY. THIS HAS KEPT THE HEAT INDICES IN CHECK WITH MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 100 EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THE MAIN STORY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN THE LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST COLD FRONT EXPECTED TOMORROW. AS OF 2 PM...THE FRONT WAS STILL LOCATED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AT THIS HOUR. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS FIRING OFF STORMS IN WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE ONLY EFFECT THESE MAY HAVE IN OUR CWA IS LIGHT RAIN AS THE STORMS WEAKEN AND DIE AS THEY NEAR THE AREA. WILL MENTION RAIN SHOWERS WITH 10 POPS AFTER 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND 18Z TOMORROW. IT WILL ARRIVE DURING PEAK HEATING AND WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. ALL ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. UNFORTUNATELY THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION AND WE WILL NOT BE IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE THE SURFACE FOCUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA. 850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE WEAK...WHICH WILL NOT HELP MUCH WITH THE PRODUCTION OF RAINFALL. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FROPA WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LIFT AT 850 MB. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND WILL CARRY 30/40 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT IS LACKING...MOISTURE WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE. PW VALUES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2.3 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND NEARLY 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... FOR FRIDAY...NORTH FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE SURFACE INTO THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRYING ALOFT AND WITH THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE...THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL LINGER POPS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. THE POPS ARE MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AS WE SHOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE DRYING ATMOSPHERE. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...PW VALUES WILL BE BELOW 2 INCHES FOR ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AND WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS IN THIS AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE NICE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT NEAR 90 FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ELSEWHERE. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN AT THE SURFACE SUNDAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. EXPECTING A BIT MORE THAN ISOLATED ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AS A WEAK TROUGH SITS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY. THIS WEAK TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS FROM WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAMPSHIRE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 94 74 95 73 / 10 30 20 10 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 94 72 93 70 / 10 30 30 10 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 96 73 93 71 / - 20 40 10 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 91 72 91 71 / 10 30 20 10 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 99 79 95 77 / 10 20 40 20 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 72 92 71 / 10 30 20 10 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 97 74 94 73 / - 20 40 20 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 92 71 / - 30 40 10 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 94 76 91 73 / - 20 40 20 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 96 76 93 74 / - 20 40 10 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 75 94 74 / - 20 40 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32