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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFSD Received: 2014-07-30 23:20 UTC
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574 FXUS63 KFSD 302320 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 620 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014 THE FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OUT THERE WILL DISSIPATE ONCE AGAIN WITH SUNSET. WILL SEE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THETAE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AROUND 700 MB...SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY LIMITED CAPE ORIGINATING FROM THIS LEVEL SO DESPITE THE QPF SIGNAL IN SOME OF THE MODELS...WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. AS IT SEEMS LIKE IT MIGHT BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL CHILLY...GENERALLY MID 50S TO AROUND 60. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH TOMORROW. JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT THAT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WAVE AND WEAK BOUNDARY TIMING...BEST COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY END UP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. CAPE IS PRETTY WEAK AND THIN...LIKELY STAYING BELOW 1000 J/KG. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE...JUST SOME RAIN AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. WE WARM ABOUT ANOTHER 1C AT 850 MB TOMORROW...BUT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LIKELY...WE WILL PROBABLY ONLY REALIZE 1F OR MAYBE 2F DEGREES WARMER SURFACE READINGS THAN TODAY...ENDING UP IN THE 78 TO 84 RANGE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014 SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING TROUGH. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS IN NORTHWEST IOWA ON THURSDAY EVENING BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE WANING OR AT LEAST REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. IN THE OUTER PERIODS (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IS PRETTY CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY EACH MODEL TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND KEEP THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO A HOT DRY RIDGE. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOW WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY. THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL HIT AND MISS SUMMER TIME VARIETY HOWEVER IF THIS TROUGH DOES ROUND THE RIDGE THEN THERE COULD BE A BIT BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. COULD ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHENARD LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...CHENARD