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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-07-30 17:04 UTC
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574 FXUS64 KEWX 301704 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1204 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z...BECOMING SCT AND VFR BY MID-MORNING ON THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT POPS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE 36 HOUR TAFS. MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL NEAR 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT. EXCEPTION IS AT KDRT WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/ UPDATE... MORNING HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA WHERE THERE ARE LOWER AMOUNTS OF INHIBITION AND WEAKER SURFACE WINDS TO ALLOW FOR GREATER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO 10 PERCENT WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENT OBS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWED. HAMPSHIRE PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/ AVIATION... IFR/MVFR CIGS ALONG AND SE OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCT BY MORNING WITH VFR SKIES PREVAILING ALL AREAS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...THEN LIFT AND BECOME SCT VFR BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. S TO SE WINDS 7 KTS OR LESS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HIGH...BUT STABLE AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL PREVENT ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY. HIGHS WILL AGAIN RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AS WELL AS GREATER CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DUE TO MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A MESSY FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT LINGERS/WASHES OUT OVER OUR AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DEFINITIVE STABILIZING PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD JUST ENOUGH TO END CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MODERATED BY THE BETTER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM NEXT WEEK...BUT DUE TO PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE RE-MOISTENING OF SOILS FROM EXPECTED RAIN...HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 74 94 74 92 / 10 - 30 30 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 97 72 94 72 91 / 10 - 30 30 30 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 98 73 96 73 92 / - - 20 30 30 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 72 91 72 88 / 10 - 30 20 20 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 102 78 99 79 95 / 0 - 20 20 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 95 73 92 72 89 / 10 - 30 30 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 72 97 74 94 / 0 0 20 30 30 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 98 73 95 73 92 / - - 20 30 30 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 98 75 94 76 90 / 10 - 30 30 30 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 76 96 76 93 / - - 20 30 30 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 99 74 97 75 94 / - - 20 30 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00