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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-07-28 11:22 UTC
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266 FXUS64 KEWX 281122 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 622 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014 .AVIATION... A RAGGED DECK OF STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR-DAWN HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. CIG BASES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF MVFR...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR BEFORE LIFTING/BREAKING OUT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 13-14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. SE-SLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO 103 WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DRIER TODAY AND WE SHOULD MIX OUT MORE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HEAT INDICES BELOW 105 DEGREES EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE 75-77 DEGREE RANGE AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED TODAY. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS PLACES THE CENTRAL CONUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH CONVECTION ONGOING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TODAY AND SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO KEEP THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z DRY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THIS REGION FOR TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DRAPED ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE FROM BURNET TO AUSTIN TO HALLETTSVILLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING NORTH OF COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN...SENDING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IT WILL FORCE THE COLD FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND WILL SHOW INCREASING POPS BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING CONVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DURING THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE TAKING SHAPE NORTH OF COLORADO. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD BRING THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH. RATHER...THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FRONT TO STALL ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.3 INCHES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COULD SEE A DECENT PERIOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-40 PERCENT POPS ON DAY 5/6 AND THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THIS SOLUTION. THE LAST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL HAVE POPS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY. IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE EXACT FRONTAL POSITION AND OTHER MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED. AT THIS TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND OTHERS MAY GET TOO MUCH THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. AGAIN...THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE...SO STAY UP TO DATE AS TIME PROGRESSES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK. HAMPSHIRE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 100 75 99 74 100 / - 20 30 - - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 73 99 71 100 / - 20 30 - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 99 72 99 71 99 / - 10 20 - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 98 73 96 72 99 / 10 20 30 - - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 79 101 77 102 / - 0 - 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 99 75 97 73 99 / 10 20 30 - 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 73 99 71 100 / - 0 - - 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 99 72 99 71 100 / - 10 20 - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 76 98 74 97 / 10 20 30 10 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 97 76 98 75 99 / - 0 10 - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 99 74 99 73 100 / 0 0 10 - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29