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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-07-28 01:42 UTC
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842 FXUS64 KEWX 280142 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 842 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .UPDATE... ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT. HEAT INDICES HAVE FALLEN BELOW 105 AND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TONIGHT WILL NOT EXTEND ADVISORY. HEAT INDICES MAY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 105 ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AGAIN MONDAY. HOWEVER...WILL BE BRIEF AND WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. 18Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE ONGOING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED OTHER THAN TO RE-ESTABLISH SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR TONIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LIFTING A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWS UP TO 2.4 INCHES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT MVFR VIS AT AUS MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AND WILL ALLOW HEAT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE RIDGE PATTERN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH DEEP LOW ACROSS ACROSS CANADA AND ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEK. ANOTHER RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE INTO THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS AND POSSIBLY THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PWATS POOLED 2-2.1 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD NOTE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE POOL TUESDAY...WITH QPF SHOWN NOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING SAN ANTONIO. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH AS THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS MOVING BACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY SENDING THE FRONT BACK AND DEEPER INTO THE CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT NOW ON TIMING OF THIS AND MOISTURE FIELDS THAN PAST FEW DAYS. DEEP MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE EWX CWA...WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIMING OF IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT... BUT GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT LOCALLY HEAVY POCKETS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY CENTRAL AND WEST...SOMETIME FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAISED POPS INTO THE SCATTERED RANGE...WITH ADDITIONAL UPWARD TREND IN POPS POSSIBLE IN FUTURE PACKAGES. TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS UNDER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...POSSIBLY COOLER IN SOME AREAS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 99 76 96 75 / 0 - 10 20 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 100 73 96 72 / 0 - 10 20 10 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 99 73 98 72 / 0 - - 10 10 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 97 74 94 73 / 0 - 20 20 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 100 78 100 77 / 0 0 - - - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 75 94 73 / 0 10 20 30 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 98 73 97 72 / 0 0 - - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 99 73 98 72 / 0 - - 20 10 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 99 76 97 75 / - - 10 20 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 97 76 97 75 / 0 0 - 10 - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 75 99 74 / 0 0 - 10 - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32