National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDABR Received: 2014-07-25 09:26 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KABR Products for 25 Jul 2014 View All AFD Products for 25 Jul 2014 View As Image Download As Text
824 FXUS63 KABR 250926 AFDABR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 426 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY A FEW LINGERING STORMS THIS AM. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL AND SLIGHTLY DIFLUENT TODAY WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. GUIDANCE PROFILES ARE A TAD MORE STABLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. H85 DEWPOINTS FALL TO AROUND +/- 1C WEST OF THE JAMES SO WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DRY OUT BY LATE MORNING AS WELL. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY...MIXED DOWN ON THE ORDER OF 20G30S THANKS TO WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION TO ENHANCED MIXING. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY ON NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MODELS ALL AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE US. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE AN LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US. AS A RESULT...WE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH COOLER CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES EARLY ON WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. ALSO...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST BEHIND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER DIFFICULT CONVECTIVE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH STORMS POSSIBLY AFFECTING ABR...ATY AND MBG. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CONNELLY LONG TERM...MOHR AVIATION...MOHR WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN