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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-07-25 04:49 UTC
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421 FXUS64 KEWX 250450 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1149 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014 .AVIATION... VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...FEW-SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 4 TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/ AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE VCSH AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KDRT THROUGH 02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER ..FEW-SCT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. S TO SE WINDS 4 TO 11 KTS WILL PREVAIL. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... IT LOOKS LIKE THE IMPACTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAVE SETTLED DOWN ENOUGH FOR US TO GET A HANDLE ON PROSPECTS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN SHORT...THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO NORTH TO GEORGETOWN HAS STABILIZED ENOUGH THAT NO FURTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE COASTAL PLAINS ARE LIKELY ALSO STABILIZED...BUT PROXIMITY TO THE SEA-BREEZE AND DIURNAL HEATING TO THE EAST MAY RESULT IN A STORM OR TWO...SO LEFT POPS IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WERE NOT AFFECTED BY CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY...SO INSTABILITY IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TEXAS STARTING FRIDAY...SO LOOK FOR A REBOUND IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...MAINTAINING INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA FOR TEMPS TO RISE SLIGHTLY TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND MOIST GULF AIR WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK TO THE 100-105 RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO FOR NOW AND POSSIBLY WITH AN SPS ISSUED TOMORROW TO HIGHLIGHT SPECIFIC AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN CHANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THE COOLEST AIR AND BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ARE SLIGHTLY BEYOND OUR OFFICIAL SEVEN-DAY-FORECAST...BUT THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST ONE FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA...AND THEN WASH OUT AND/OR STALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ARE FAR TOO WARM WITH MAX TEMPS...AS THE MODELS LIKELY DO NOT SEE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR DUE TO POORER VERTICAL RESOLUTION...SO THE FORECAST SHOWS TEMPS 3-5F BELOW MOS FOR NOW. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD WE WILL DROP TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES AND RAISE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FOR NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS OBSERVATIONS OF THE COOL AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND MODEL GUIDANCE BECOME CLEARER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 98 76 99 76 / - 0 - - - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 97 73 98 75 / - 0 - - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 97 74 98 75 / - - - - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 97 74 97 75 / - 0 - 0 - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 99 77 100 78 / 20 - - - - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 75 97 76 / - 0 - - - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 97 74 99 75 / 20 - - - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 97 74 98 75 / - - - - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 96 75 96 75 / 20 - - - - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 97 76 98 76 / - - - - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 75 99 75 / - - - - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25