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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-07-24 14:19 UTC
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453 FXUS64 KEWX 241419 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 919 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014 .UPDATE... JUST SENT A MAJOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. IN SHORT...THE MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS YESTERDAY HELD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THIS MORNING. A SECOND AREA OF STRONGER STORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE BRENHAM AREA. THIS LATTER AREA OF STORMS MATCHES WELL WITH THE TTECH AND CSU WRF RUNS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WITH THE HRRR. THUS...WE EXPECT THIS AREA TO GROW IN SIZE AND BEGIN MOVING NEARLY DUE WEST ALONG WITH THE GENERAL MOTION OF THE REMNANT FROM A TUTT LOW OVER LOUISIANA IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS...WITH CHANCES AND QPF DECREASING TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-5F COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DUE TO MIXING AND INGESTING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST AIR IN TO DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/ AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ TODAY'S FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE AUSTIN AREA TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONING SHRA/TSRA FROM THE 12Z TAFS PACKAGE AS ANTICIPATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE AREA SITES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PER AREA 24/00Z RAOB DATA. THIS PATTERN USUALLY DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RADAR DATA DOES SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN AUSTIN TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE AS OF 06Z COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TODAY. THE HI-RES RUC...3KM TEXAS TECH WRF AND SREF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON THE ABOVE...WE HAVE INCLUDED A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ON FRIDAY... A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS... WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 AND LOWS IN THE 70S. LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS WEEKEND AS THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS PATTERN INTACT...WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT LIKELY CONTROLLED BY THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE RATHER LOW...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER DATA BEGAN TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP POPS LOW (20%) FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 REMAINING FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND NEXT WEEK...BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 97 76 100 76 99 / 30 30 - - - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 96 73 99 73 98 / 30 30 - - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 96 73 99 73 99 / 40 40 - - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 95 74 97 74 97 / 40 30 - - 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 98 77 100 77 101 / 20 20 - - 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 98 75 98 / 30 30 - - 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 95 73 98 74 99 / 30 30 - - 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 95 73 98 74 98 / 40 40 - - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 95 75 98 76 97 / 70 50 20 10 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 95 76 98 76 98 / 30 30 - - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 96 75 98 75 99 / 30 30 10 - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33