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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-04-24 23:47 UTC
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648 FXUS64 KEWX 242347 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 647 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014 .AVIATION... A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM GEORGETOWN TO BOERNE TO UVALDE AND HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH DRT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AUS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AS THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL BRIEFLY GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE SAN ANTONIO AREA AROUND 02Z. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE EDGE OF THE HILL COUNTRY WILL SLOW IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOUGH TO CALL THIS A COLD FRONT AS MUCH DRIER AIR...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF I-35... WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE... LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL SERVE TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA (VAL VERDE COUNTY) FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...STORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS FAVORABLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO WEST OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS AFFECTING VAL VERDE COUNTY IS RATHER LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND HILL COUNTRY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF AN EAGLE PASS TO KERRVILLE LINE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL SHIFT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THE STRONGER FORCING WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR REGION... BUT WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. THE FORECAST WILL TREND DRIER FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED NEXT WEEK AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW PARKING ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS STATES. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LOW... WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW... WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST REMAIN CONSISTENT BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY...SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 59 89 66 88 70 / - - 10 20 30 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 89 62 88 69 / - - 10 10 30 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 59 90 64 89 69 / - - 10 20 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 55 87 65 86 68 / - - - 20 30 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 92 70 94 69 / 0 10 10 20 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 55 87 65 85 69 / - - - 10 30 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 62 93 68 93 71 / - - 10 20 40 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 89 65 88 69 / - - 10 20 30 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 62 87 65 85 70 / - - 10 10 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 90 67 90 70 / - - 10 20 30 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 64 92 66 93 71 / - - 10 20 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33