National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFSD Received: 2014-04-23 02:48 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KFSD Products for 23 Apr 2014 View All AFD Products for 23 Apr 2014 View As Image Download As Text
219 FXUS63 KFSD 230248 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 948 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 THE CURRENT FORECAST IS RUNNING ALONG WELL...AND GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE CURRENT AND UPSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VERY LOW LEVELS...PER KOAX/KTOP/KLBF...ARE EXTREMELY DRY AND THE ELEVATED THETA E ADVECTION ABOVE 700 HPA HAS HARDLY BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE BUT A FEW SPRINKLES. TRAJECTORY DOES NOT SUGGEST A GREAT CHANGE IN LOWER LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASE IN THE 700-500 HPA LAPSE RATE AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN PLAINS WORKING INTO THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ONGOING IDEA OF A LOW CHANCE POP WORKING INTO THE WEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND ENHANCING JUST A BIT BY LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING TOWARD THE EAST SEEMS ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGE OF SUBSTANCE WAS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS...AS WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE WELL WITHIN ANY MIXED LAYER AND WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO REALIZE ONE DIURNAL MIXING OCCURS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. AS OF 20Z...TROUGH WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. 850 -700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY CREATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. VERY WINDY DAY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. 925 HPA WINDS START OFF AROUND 40 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING...SHOULD SEE ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA. TOUGH CALL IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER AS SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT VERY BRIEFLY NOSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW AND INSTABILITY REMAINS ABOVE MUCH OF THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THEREFORE...MAINLY EXPECTING STORMS TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BUT COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED HAILER APPROACH THE LOW END OF SEVERE LIMITS IN THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 THE THREAT FOR LOW END SEVERE WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CWA...WITH ELEVATED HAILERS THE MAIN CONCERN. STILL EXPECTING A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF RAINFALL HOWEVER WITH A DECREASING THREAT FOR THUNDER TO THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR BY LATE NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL LEAVE A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT COULD BE DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WE HEAT OUT AND A LITTLE BIT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE DEVELOPS...ABOUT 500 J/KG OR LESS. WITH A VERY LOW FREEZING LEVEL SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE OTHER CONCERN ON THURSDAY WILL BE FIRE WEATHER. VERY DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH AND SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SO IF THE FORECAST HOLDS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE. ON FRIDAY THE MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE MIXED DAY WITH THE 12Z GFS QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/GEM OUTPUT. SO RAISED HIGHS A BIT MORE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. ANOTHER FAIRLY BREEZY DAY BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE A BIT BELOW WHATS NEEDED FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. IN THE OUTER PERIODS(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS INCONSISTENT AND DIVERGING A BIT SO CONFIDENCE NOT REAL STRONG...AT LEAST ON SOME OF THE DETAILS. ONE THINGS SEEMS ALMOST FOR CERTAIN AND THAT IS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT AT LEAST FOR THE WEEKEND EVEN THAT IS NOT COMPLETELY GUARANTEED. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS COME IN MUCH WARMER...FARTHER NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT...THAN EITHER THE GFS OR GEM. AT THIS TIME SIDING WITH THE GFS/GEM OUTPUT WHICH KEEPS THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WHICH SHOULD IN TURN KEEP THE WARMER AIR LOCKED UP TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COOLER AIR SETTLES IN ON ALL THE MODELS SO A BIT MORE CONFIDENT FOR COLDER CONDITIONS THESE DAYS. STILL A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE MODELS CAN BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER PROBABILITIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 LARGEST AVIATION ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WINDS. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND WILL GET WINDS STRONG ENOUGH ALOFT TO WARRANT SOME NEAR 40 KNOT GUSTS AS EARLY AS 14-15Z. AT THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY END UP WITH SURFACE WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO AVOID MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO MIXING OUT NEAR SURFACE INVERSION BY MID MORNING. WHILE DO ACKNOWLEDGE THE FACT THAT COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER BY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING... THEN AGAIN TOWARD LATER AFTERNOON FOR KHON...THE PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP FROM MENTIONING WITH LIKELIHOOD THAT ANY SHOWERS WOULD ALSO CONTAIN VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ040-055- 056-062-066-067-070-071. WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ038-039- 050-052>054-057>061-063>065-068-069. MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072- 080-081-089-090-097-098. IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ013-014. && $$ UPDATE...CHAPMAN SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...CHAPMAN/SCHUMACHER