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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDUNR Received: 2014-04-22 20:36 UTC
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361 FXUS63 KUNR 222036 AFDUNR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 236 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014 UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US...AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CREATING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WY...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST SD. TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 70S...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN SD BY 12Z. ML CAPE OF 200-500 J/KG COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BUT LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING SEVERE. LOCATION OF THE LOW INDICATES A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRESSURE RISES OF 4-5 MB/3HR AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION SUGGEST GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO RAPID CITY. MODELS INDICATE 25-30 KT WIND SPEEDS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TOMORROW DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONT...BUT HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD...TO THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MAY BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE LOW...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AND PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT...AND LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S. && .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014 GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THU AND FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A FEW -SHRA ACRS FAR NWRN SD THU MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGN THU DUE TO A TIGHT SFC PRESS GRAD. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A STRONG UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE WEST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL AGREE IN SHOWING A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES SAT/EARLY SUN AND INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUN/MON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST THERMAL PROFILES BOOSTING CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS SHOULD BECOME QUITE COLD...20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS. THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATING SNOW...MOST LIKELY OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS MUCH TO EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE AS THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK...STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. STAY TUNED. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING CONTAINING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012- 013-026-031-072-073. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...POJORLIE LONG TERM...10 AVIATION...10