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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2014-04-19 11:33 UTC
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603 FXUS64 KEWX 191133 AAA AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 633 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE W/SW. THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WITH THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE MUCH IF ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. AFTER 16Z WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CIGS DEVELOP AROUND 4K FEET. THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 08Z-10Z WHEN MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST WITH VSBYS REDUCED TO 4SM-5SM. DID NOT INCLUDE EXCEPT AT KAUS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. AFTER SUNSET WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP AT KDRT FOR TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE MAIN CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE INCREASING MOIST GULF FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...AND PACIFIC MOIST AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AS A RAGGED UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SMALLER VORTICITY CENTERS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER CIRCULATION...WITH ONE TIMED EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL NOT IMPACT OUR AREA...BUT THE SECOND WILL AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...WHERE LOW POPS WERE ADDED FOR AN OVERNIGHT WEAK MCS OR CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL ORIGINATE ON THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST. ANOTHER PIECE OF VORTICITY AND THE APPROACH OF A JET STREAK/S LEFT EXIT REGION SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE AGAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL...QPF WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AND SUNDAY. LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... AN INTERESTING SCENARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE LAST MAIN VORTICITY CENTER AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS COINCIDE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW ALL OF THIS COMING TOGETHER OVER THE HILL COUNTRY...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO INITIATE AND ENHANCE CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AND OVERALL STORM MOTION COULD BE A SLOW 5-10 KTS FOR RIGHT MOVING STORMS...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY MOVE NEARLY DUE EAST GIVEN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS. THE ST. LOUIS UNIVERSITY CIPS WEBSITE ANALOGS SHOW WIND AND HAIL DAMAGE FOR THE HILL COUNTRY FROM PAST SIMILAR EVENTS. AGREE WITH THE DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK FOR THIS THREAT AND HAVE TAKEN THE UNUSUAL STEP OF INCLUDING IT IN THE HWO AND ZFP AT THIS RANGE AS A PRECAUTIONARY HEADS-UP COMING OUT OF EASTER WEEKEND. THIS COULD IMPACT METRO AUSTIN WITH SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY...BUT THE IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...SO ONLY INCLUDED 20 POPS AT THIS RANGE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS... BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 79 60 78 63 83 / - 10 20 10 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 79 57 79 61 84 / - 10 20 10 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 58 79 61 84 / - 10 20 10 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 59 77 62 83 / - 10 20 10 30 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 64 81 65 87 / 20 30 30 10 20 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 78 59 77 63 82 / - 10 20 10 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 63 82 65 86 / - 10 20 10 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 58 78 61 83 / - 10 20 10 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 59 79 61 82 / - 10 20 10 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 61 79 63 85 / - 10 20 10 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 82 61 81 63 86 / - 10 20 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26