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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDABR Received: 2014-04-16 02:48 UTC
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018 FXUS63 KABR 160248 AAB AFDABR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 948 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014 .UPDATE... WITH JUST A FEW HOURS REMAINING BEFORE A VIGOROUS UPPER CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN WY WORKS ITS WAY OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MODELS SHOULD BE CONVERGING ON A PRECIP SOLUTION. THAT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE THE CASE THIS EVENING. THE 18Z GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS /AND NOW THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION/ ALL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A LARGE QPF/SNOW ACCUM BULLS-EYE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE HOURLY UPDATE MODEL /RAPID REFRESH MODEL/ SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING ACROSS SAID AREA BY SUNRISE. ASSUMING THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL HAS CHECKED OUT FOR A FEW FORECAST CYCLES THIS EVENING...STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL INCREASING TREND IN PRECIP RETURNS/COVERAGE ON RADAR HEADING TOWARD MORNING. PREVIOUS THINKING STILL HOLDS...STRONG FRONTO-FORCING/LIFT/INSTABILITY COMBO IN PLACE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A MESO-SCALE HEAVY BANDED PRECIPITATION EVENT...WHERE P-TYPE ON THE FRONT END OF THE EVENT WILL BE EITHER RAIN OR A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WITH 6 OR MORE HOURS OF POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BENEATH A MESO-SCALE BANDED FEATURE /WHERE EVER IT ENDS UP SETTING UP/. TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT BANDED PRECIP HIGHER AMOUNTS IN WSW UPDATE. BREEZING/WINDY EASTERLY WINDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS SWITCHING TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY...SO ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING THAT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL WITH MARKEDLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IS STILL IN PLACE. SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AN INTERESTING FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST...WITH PCPN TYPE/AMOUNTS THE MAIN PROBLEM. FOR TNT DECENT LOOKING SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH AND EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UVM PER VARIOUS OMEGA/Q VECTOR/FRONTOGENESIS/DIVERGENCE PROGS STILL LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MY NORTHEASTERN CWA AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT...LASTING UNTIL ABOUT NOON OVER THE FAR EAST. ONE NOTED CHANGE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT RUNS AND PAST RUNS IS THE FASTER CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. BOTH THE GFS/NAM NOW INDICATE LESSER CHANCES FOR FZRA VS SNOW/SLEET. THIS COULD ADD MORE TO ACCUMULATION TOTALS VS PREVIOUS THOUGHTS/IDEAS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STORM APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE DESPITE A CLOSING OFF H7 LOW OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SO IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF ALL ELEMENTS STILL APPEARS TO TARGET THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WORST IMPACTS. NONETHELESS...FEEL AN ADVISORY IS JUSTIFIED OVER MY NORTHEAST CWA GIVEN OCCURRENCE OF MIXED PCPN TYPE/ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET RIGHT BEFORE THE START OF MORNING TRAVEL TO/FROM WORK AND SCHOOL. SO AN ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR LATE TNT THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS A HEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE REBOUND POST WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW WILL SKIRT ACROSS CANADA WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE INITIALLY...BUT LOOK TO SATURATE QUICKLY ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE THE FORECAST HOLDS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY. OTHERWISE PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG TERM. THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT REALLY NO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THAT FEATURE. MODELS DO AGREE ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEAK HOWEVER...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES...EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE TEENS...MAYBE EVEN 20S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 6 HOURS BEFORE POTENTIAL FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS STARTS RAMPING UP. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THE P-TYPE DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. INITIALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN P-TYPE WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES DOWN/COOLS DOWN. ONCE SATURATED...THE LOWEST THREE TO FOUR THOUSAND FEET AGL ARE FORECAST TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR P-TYPE TO BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW. IT'S IN THIS PERIOD OF TRANSITION/SATURATION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT P-TYPE COULD BE FLIRTING WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF DIFFERENT WINTER-TIME P-TYPES WILL EXIST AT KMBG AND KPIR MAINLY BETWEEN APPX 04Z AND 10Z BEFORE P-TYPE IS FORECAST TO BE ALL SNOW. THE TIME RANGE FOR THIS POTENTIAL FOR VARIOUS P-TYPES WILL ALSO EXIST AT THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS...BUT LATER IN TIME...MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT OF A HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BY MORNING IS ALSO STILL VERY REAL. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE 18Z GFS SUGGESTS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF MOBRIDGE AND EXTEND EASTWARD THROUGH KABR AND ON INTO WEST CENTRAL MN NEAR WHEATON. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR CATEGORIES UNDER SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST BY MORNING...REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN- EDMUNDS-FAULK-MCPHERSON-SPINK. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE. && $$ UPDATE...DORN SHORT TERM...TDK LONG TERM...SERR AVIATION...DORN WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN