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448 FXUS64 KFWD 040911 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 411 AM CDT WED APR 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... SEE BELOW FOR A BRIEF DISCUSSION ABOUT YESTERDAY/S TORNADO OUTBREAK AND TODAY/S PLANNED STORM SURVEYS. A LARGE UPPER LOW WAS STILL LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL BE MOVING EAST TODAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL SITES ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER TONIGHT AND WE ANTICIPATE THAT PARTS OF THE ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE TRUE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT 4 AM...THE FRONT WAS MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT A GRAVITY WAVE WAS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VISIBILITIES MAY TEMPORARILY IMPROVE AS THE GRAVITY WAVE MOVES THROUGH BUT FOG MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY REDEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...SOME OF THE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE LOW WILL GRAZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS THIS POTENT LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS MAY ONLY RESULT IN VIRGA...BUT WILL CARRY LOW POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE IN TALLER STORMS GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME THIS WEEKEND AS A POTENT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SEVERAL FRONTS WILL REACH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE FIRST FRONT WILL QUIETLY SLIDE INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE ON THURSDAY...WITH THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVING LATE ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE FORCING WILL COME FROM THE FRONTS THEMSELVES DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER OF THESE FRONTS. THERE ARE SLIGHT MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTS AND THE FORECASTED ARRIVALS AND POPS MAY BE ADJUSTED. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL BE PLEASANT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BUT SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND NEXT WEEK/S FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. 82/JLD /APRIL 3RD TORNADO OUTBREAK/ SURVEY TEAMS WILL BE HEADING OUT EARLY TO ASSESS THE DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY FROM THE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. APPROXIMATELY 11-13 AREAS OF DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND WILL BE SURVEYED TODAY AND ON THURSDAY IF NEEDED. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME EXACTLY HOW MANY TORNADOES THERE WERE AND THE SURVEY TEAMS TODAY WILL BE WORKING TO DETERMINE A MORE CONCRETE NUMBER. INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEYS WILL BE DISSEMINATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY THROUGH OUR WEBPAGE AND FACEBOOK PAGE AS THE SURVEY TEAMS INVESTIGATE THE DAMAGE. A MORE COMPLETE WRITE-UP WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...ALL EVIDENCE WAS SUGGESTING THE EVENT WOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. IT WAS ANTICIPATED THAT A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WOULD FORM AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS PART OF THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WAS DISCUSSED BUT IT WAS THE MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT PLAYED A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN WHAT ENDED UP BEING AN OUTBREAK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS OVER OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ENDED UP BEING A KEY PLAYER IN ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER YESTERDAY MORNING AND REACHED THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MANAGED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS. AS THESE SUPERCELLS MOVED NORTH AND CROSSED THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THEY ENTERED AN ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR DUE TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. IT WAS ALSO NOTED BY LOCAL REAL TIME MODELING THAT THE SURFACE TO 3KM CAPE WAS VERY HIGH IN THE AREAS WHERE THE TORNADOES OCCURRED. A LINK BETWEEN INCREASED LOW LEVEL CAPE AND TORNADOES HAS BEEN FOUND IN PREVIOUS RESEARCH. MORE IN DEPTH STUDY AND ANALYSIS WILL LIKELY BE DONE ON THIS DAY IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THIS WAS A GOOD EXAMPLE OF HOW SMALL MESOSCALE FEATURES CAN QUICKLY CHANGE THE STORM ENVIRONMENT ON ANY GIVEN DAY WHEN SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS STILL VERY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE MODELS TO RESOLVE THESE SMALL MESOSCALE FEATURES...AND IT IS WHY WE URGE EVERYONE TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER ON DAYS WHEN SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. 82/92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 56 79 59 82 / 10 20 0 0 0 WACO, TX 81 56 80 57 82 / 10 10 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 75 53 75 53 77 / 10 30 5 0 0 DENTON, TX 75 53 79 55 81 / 10 30 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 75 53 77 55 80 / 10 30 5 0 0 DALLAS, TX 76 57 80 60 82 / 10 20 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 75 55 78 57 80 / 10 20 5 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 78 57 79 58 81 / 10 10 5 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 83 58 81 57 84 / 10 10 0 0 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 76 50 80 54 82 / 10 10 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ104- 118>121-130>134-143>146-157>161. && $$ 92/82