National Weather Service Raw Text Product

997 
FXUS61 KOKX 222108
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
408 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND 
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A MORE COMPLEX SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WELL EARLY TODAY...AND 
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK RETURNS OVER THE OCEAN JUST TO THE 
SOUTH. MODELS DO SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURRING TONIGHT.

NAM/GFS DO OUTPUT POCKETS OF LIGHT QPF OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH 
MESOSCALE MODELS/SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHT 
CROSS SECTIONS...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH 5 KFT 
TONIGHT. DO NOT FEEL THAT DEPTH OF MOIST LAYER WILL BE ENOUGH TO 
RESULT IN SNOW/SLEET. I COULD BE WRONG...BUT MAIN PTYPE THAT CONCERNS 
ME IS DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

BASED ON SFC TEMP FORECASTS...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN AT OR 
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. WILL ISSUE 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT ALL ZONES...WITH 
ENDING TIMES LAYERED ACCORDINGLY.

THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF DRIZZLE IS NOT 
WIDESPREAD...LATER SHIFTS MAY DROP THE ADVISORY AND HIGHLIGHT THE 
THREAT IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON MAIN FEATURES THIS TIME FRAME AS 
ZONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO UPSTREAM TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO 
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH. ANY LINGERING LIGHT FZDZ/DZ IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE 
WAY TO A STEADIER RAIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY. STEADIER RAIN 
CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...ADVECTION FOG QUITE POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERLY 
FLOW SWEEPS IN OVER FRESH SNOWPACK.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER  
RETURNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME 
FRAME...WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT POLAR JET AND RESULTING STORM TRACK IS 
SUPPRESSED OVER THE NORTHERN US THIS WEEK LEADING TO A MORE ACTIVE 
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH RIDGING 
BUILDING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A DRY 
FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED...BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING 
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

AS DEEP LOW PRES DEPARTS OVER EASTERN CANADA...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD 
IN RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED.

THE EVENTUAL RESULT OF THE DIGGING TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN WHAT HAPPENS LOCALLY 
NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM CLOSES 
OFF AND SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT 
WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHEN IT WILL OPEN BACK UP AND PHASE WITH THE 
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. EC IS THE FASTEST...WHILE CMC IS THE 
SLOWEST. GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY OVER ITS LAST 2 RUNS AND HAS 
SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET SO GENERALLY SIDED WITH THIS SOLN.

OVERRUNNING PRECIP BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA SOMETIME ON THU AS THE 
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. LOCATION OF HIGH IS NOT IN A PRIME LOCATION TO 
LOCK COLD AIR IN FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME...SO ALTHOUGH 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY BEGIN WITH FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP...IT 
SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIQUID. COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA THU 
NIGHT WHILE LOW PRES OVER THE GULF COAST TRACKS TOWARDS THE MID 
ATLANTIC COAST. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS S OF LONG ISLAND ON SAT 
AS A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE N. THIS IS VERY COMPLEX 
SCENARIO AND COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MODELS TRY 
TO RESOLVE THE LOW OUT WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/VFR CIGS OVER THE TERMINALS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR 
EVERYWHERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO 
LOWER THIS EVENING TO IFR AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

ALSO...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE RESULTING IN LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 
FREEZING...EXPECT A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH MAY LAST MUCH 
OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM AFTER 08Z-11Z WHEN ANY 
FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANGES OVER TO JUST PLAIN DRIZZLE. 

LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE NYC WILL SEE TEMPERATURES STAY COOLER A BIT
LONGER SO A LONGER PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LAST LONGER THERE.

ANY DRIZZLE LOOKS TO END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...SO EXPECTING A
DRIER MORNING WITH VERY LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS. STILL LOOKING
AT IFR/MVFR CIGS. RAIN STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE RAIN 
MAY BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY LATE IN THE 30 HOUR TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI... 
MON...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN. 
TUE- WED...VFR. GUSTY W FLOW. 
THU...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING SEAS AROUND 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS MAY SUBSIDE 
BRIEFLY TONIGHT AS EAST FLOW DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WINDS 
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND INCREASE. 
SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THESE STRENGTHENING WINDS.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE 
WEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG 
ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT CONDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT WITH A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AS 
LOW PRES DEPARTS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL CONDS 
SHOULD PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS BY LATER WED MORNING UNTIL FRI WHERE 
SCA CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN POST COLD FROPA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA 
MONDAY/MON NIGHT. A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN...COMBINED WITH MELTING 
SNOW PACK AND SNOW CLOGGED DRAINS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED URBAN AND 
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST 
     MONDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST 
     MONDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST 
     MONDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081-177-179.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST 
     MONDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST 
     MONDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST 
     MONDAY FOR NJZ004-006-103>108.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST 
     MONDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...24/PW
HYDROLOGY...PW