195 FXUS61 KLWX 171438 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 938 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure near the Delmarva will continue to pull away from the East Coast. Milder temperatures and dry conditions are expected through Thursday. A strong cold front will push through the region Thursday night. Showers will develop with the frontal passage, followed by gusty winds and colder temperatures once again late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Multi-layered clouds will continue to stream overhead for much of the day. A few rogue gusts of 40 to 50 mph were noted in the lee of the Alleghenies earlier this morning with more persistent gusts of such magnitude confined to near and above 4000 feet. Such winds have since begun to abate, precluding the need for any headlines at this time. High pressure over us will weaken as a mid-level disturbance pushes east across the Great Lakes today. A weak and dry cold front will slide across the region but be barely noticeable outside of a brief wind shift out of the north. Behind the front, a second area of high pressure will build in through Thursday morning. Highs today will top out in the middle to upper 40s in the north and the lower to middle 50s in the south. These are milder than recent days. Temperatures tonight will be a few degrees milder and closer to average for mid-December. The second high pressure will move east by midday Thursday to make room for a developing warm front across southern Virginia and north-central North Carolina to push northward midday Thursday through Thursday evening. During the same time that this warm front is pushing north, a potent upper-level low pressure system will be shoving eastward across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Additional warmth and moisture will also be streaming northward ahead of the main low pressure system and just behind the advancing warm front. Some pre-warm frontal rain showers are possible Thursday afternoon, but most likely showers would be more prone to develop behind the warm front and ahead of the approaching affiliated cold front Thursday evening. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... During the late Thursday evening and overnight into early Friday morning, showers are expected to develop ahead of a powerful cold front. This will then be followed by a line of gusty showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms accompanying the front itself. There are a lot of factors at play with this system that lend at least some level of concern in terms of a low-end severe weather threat. First off, there will be plenty of wind shear to work with. A powerful, negatively- tilted, upper- trough will swing through the region early Friday. This will be accompanied by a 60-70 knots LLJ. In short, deep- layer shear values in excess of 60 knots are forecast, with impressive curved hodographs yielding low-level SRH values in the 300-400 m2/s2 range. However, a key component for sever weather is instability, and this is going to be hard to come by given the time of day this front rolls through. As guidance continues to roll in this morning, my thoughts remain largely unchanged in regards to the overall threat for the region. The most likely scenario is that this line of heavy showers along the actual front will bring some gusty winds down with it. This seems reasonable given the amount of low-level winds at play here. However, the magnitude is going to be greatly hindered by a very steep inversion at the surface. While you can punch some winds through the inversion given strong enough convection, very rarely do you get all of that wind down. For that reason, my best thinking is some 40 mph winds along the line of showers, with a few gusts near 50 mph not out of the question, albeit pretty isolated in nature. If there were a spot that is slightly more favored, that would be across southern MD. As is often the case, this area will see higher dew points than areas north and west. This would be the area where the highest thunderstorm threat would be, albeit still small. It is here that there is some indication of a low-end tornado threat, but again this will be very conditional on the fact that some instability is able to develop. A few hi-res models do have some CAPE in that region, but still thinking it will just not quite be enough to spin up a tornado. At any rate, it can't be completely ruled out, so it is always a good idea to have a way to get warnings overnight, should we have to issue any. Behind the cold front, blustery conditions return for Friday afternoon in strong northwest winds. Winds could gust 35 to 45 mph for most, especially north of the I-66 corridor roughly. Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected over the higher elevations during this time, with Wind Advisories likely needed in a future forecast package. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure quickly moves overhead on Saturday, then departs offshore Saturday night into Sunday. Overall, conditions are forecast to be dry and seasonal this weekend, with no significant weather expected. A dry cold front quickly crosses the area on Sunday, with some rain/snow showers possible in the Alleghenies on the backside of the front. Due to temps right or just above freezing, likely will not see accumulating snow. Another area of high pressure builds in for the start of next week as temperatures remain near seasonal values. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will provide dry and cold conditions through tonight. Winds become southwest around 5 to 10 knots today into tonight. There could be a brief shift to northwest with a passing dry weak front. For the most part, we can expect gradual warming temperatures with a southerly wind ahead of a powerful front set to push through late Thursday. Sub-VFR conditions are possible Thursday afternoon as a front approaches the terminals with restrictions likely during precipitation overnight. Southerly winds gust 15 to 25 knots Thursday afternoon and into the overnight ahead of the front. Some convection is possible overnight, but more likely in the form of a brief heavy downpours, especially along the actual front early Friday morning. This could also be accompanied by a surge of 40+ knot winds along the main line. VFR conditions and gusty winds are expected across all terminals on Friday in the wake of the cold front, with gusts likely exceeding 30 knots through the afternoon. Winds diminish quickly Friday evening before becoming light overnight. VFR conditions are likely to persist across the area this weekend as high pressure traverses the region. Winds could gust around 15-20 knots each afternoon, with southerly winds Saturday and westerly on Sunday. && .MARINE... Southerly channeling over the middle Chesapeake Bay and the southern end of the tidal Potomac have lead to an SCA being issued through 1 PM this afternoon. Winds will taper off during the evening into early Thursday. Small Craft Advisories are likely beginning Thursday afternoon as southerly winds gust 20 to 30 knots through the overnight ahead of a powerful cold front. A brief surge of stronger winds is possible along the cold front early Friday morning with a line of heavy showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms (mainly in southern MD). However, a strong inversion is expected at the surface, which could help to subdue this threat a bit. Right now, couldn't rule out some 40+ knot wind gusts along the line early Friday morning. Gusty northwest winds will yield high-end Small Craft Advisories across the waters on Friday at the very least. In the northern portions of the waters, north of North Beach, winds could reach Gale-force, especially after mid-morning into Friday evening. As high pressure builds over the area, winds diminish Friday night, becoming light by Saturday morning. Southerly channeling is likely to produce SCA conditions across all the waters Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Winds diminish Sunday as high pressure moves offshore and a dry cold front moves through the area. SCA conditions could return Sunday night as northwest winds increase behind the front. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ533- 534-537-541>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DHOF/CJL NEAR TERM...DHOF/CJL SHORT TERM...DHOF/CJL LONG TERM...KRR AVIATION...DHOF/CJL/KRR MARINE...DHOF/CJL/KRR