322 ACUS01 KWNS 140051 SWODY1 SPC AC 140049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN...MS...NWRN AL AND SERN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE NC AND SC REGION... ...WRN TN VALLEY REGION... LINE OF CONVECTION FROM WRN KY SWWD INTO NRN MS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED HAIL. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BY 03Z AS THEY INTERACT WITH A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...FROM CENTRAL KY SWWD INTO MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL. ...CENTRAL/SRN MS AND SERN LA... AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. EVEN THOUGH CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK...CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THOUGH STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED THAN FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN MS...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL...AND SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE. WHAT SEVERE STORMS DO DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN BY 03Z-06Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE MS/AL BORDER WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE DUE TO CLOUDS AND EARLIER PRECIPITATION. ...SC/NC REGION... CONVERGENCE NEAR WARM FRONT...LOCATED E-W ACROSS NRN NC...AND WEAK CONFLUENCE IN SC WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...STRONGLY VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER 200 MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE WERE RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND 03Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY STABILIZES. ..IMY.. 05/14/2011  097 ACUS11 KWNS 140059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140058 TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-140200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KY/MIDDLE TN AND EASTERN/SOUTHERN MS INTO AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300... VALID 140058Z - 140200Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 CONTINUES. SEVERE TSTM WATCH 300 CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL REMAINING A CONCERN THROUGH MID EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MS/WESTERN AL. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED...MONITORING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MS/EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHERN AL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH. A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM AREAS NEAR THE OH RIVER/WEST-CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE TN AND FAR NORTHEAST MS/NORTHWEST AL...WITH MORE SCATTERED/DISCRETE TSTMS IN AN UNSTABLE/MOIST SECTOR FROM EAST-CENTRAL MS/WEST-CENTRAL AL TO SOUTHERN MS/EASTERN LA. THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS KY/MIDDLE TN WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION /REFERENCE 00Z NASHVILLE OBSERVED RAOB/...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO WANE THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO WESTERN AL/EASTERN LA. AS DPVA AT LEAST GLANCES THE REGION...THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A MOIST AIRMASS/RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY PER 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM LAKE CHARLES/NEW ORLEANS AND JACKSON MS /ALBEIT SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED/. ..GUYER.. 05/14/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...MEG...JAN... LIX... LAT...LON 37328724 37708669 35888638 30868885 30789173 33178956 35798749 37328724  367 ACUS11 KWNS 140100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140100 NCZ000-SCZ000-140130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0782 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NC-SC PIEDMONT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299... VALID 140100Z - 140130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299 CONTINUES. THERE IS A DECREASING STRONG AND PERHAPS ISOLD SEVERE RISK THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NEW WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED AT THE 03Z EXPIRATION TIME AND AN EXTENSION-IN-TIME WILL LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PULSATING NATURE TO UPDRAFTS ALONG N-S ORIENTED WEAKENING CONVECTIVE COLD POOL MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR IN NC. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR ALONG AND N OF A RESIDUAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY /CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ EXTENDING FROM 20 WSW RDU TO 20 W GSO. TO THE IMMEDIATE E OF THE SLOWLY MOVING COOL POOL...A HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E PLUME IS BEGINNING TO BE PINCHED ON THE NRN END OVER S-CNTRL VA AND PARTS OF THE NC PIEDMONT TO THE W OF WHERE LOW CLOUDS IMPEDED MORE APPRECIABLE SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY. 00Z GSO RAOB SHOWS WEAK WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE--WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM INTENSITY CONCURRENT WITH DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STRONG/DMGG GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. ..SMITH.. 05/14/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34388161 35428124 35988076 36528023 36397970 36027910 35697905 35197945 34667998 34498083 34388161  940 ACUS02 KWNS 140505 SWODY2 SPC AC 140504 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE LACK OF MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY ALLOW A NARROW WEDGE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BENEATH MODEST SSWLY FLOW ALOFT AS EWD PROGRESSION OF SFC FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE ROUGHLY 20-25KT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IT WOULD SEEM REASONABLE THAT UPDRAFTS COULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE IN ANY APPRECIABLE FASHION. EVEN SO THE MORE ROBUST TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING ONE INCH OR PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...SOUTH FL... COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH FL AS WNWLY FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED WITHIN BASE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE AN EAST COAST CONVERGENCE ZONE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTH FL SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES COULD CERTAINLY APPROACH OR EXCEED 2000 J/KG...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR HAIL PRODUCTION GIVEN THAT H5 TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 11-12C. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS. ..DARROW.. 05/14/2011  947 ACUS01 KWNS 140518 SWODY1 SPC AC 140517 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OR...SERN WA AND FAR WRN ID... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL CHANGE LITTLE. LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRETCH FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...WHILE AN ERN PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EWD ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE TWO LOW PRESSURES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...ONE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND THE SERN STATES...WHILE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO ERN WA/OR AND NV BY LATE IN THE DAY. ...CAROLINAS AND VA REGION... MORNING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY HINDER STRONGER CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NC...IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO SRN VA ON SAT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ...THOUGH OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND LARGE SCALE LIFTING INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH. STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. ...AL/GA AND FL... CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. LIMITED HEATING AND CONSEQUENT INSTABILITY SHOULD LESSEN THE SEVERE THREAT. SOME CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG FRONT IN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. ALSO...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH EWD MOVING SEA BREEZE ACROSS ERN FL PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. ...OH VALLEY... WITHIN UPPER TROUGH...A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NEWD FROM THE WRN TN VALLEY INTO SRN INDIANA BY LATE IN THE DAY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. IN AREAS WHERE HEATING OCCURS...THE RESULTANT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND MOST LIKELY FROM EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. ...ERN OR/SERN WA AND WRN ID... STRONG JET ASSOCIATED WITH ERN PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ONTO THE CENTRAL CA COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FROM NV NEWD ACROSS WA/OR AND ID...INCREASING CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 500-700 MB LAPSES RATES GREATER THAN 8C/KM WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30 TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT STRONG STORMS WITH SOME MID LEVEL ROTATION. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH WIND DAMAGE. ..IMY/SMITH.. 05/14/2011  053 ACUS11 KWNS 140554 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140554 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-140730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 140554Z - 140730Z A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS SRN MS..SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR WW ISSUANCE. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LINE ACROSS SW AL AND SRN MS. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR TO RANGE FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG SUGGESTING THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LINE SUSTAINED SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN AL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE MOBILE WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1.5 KM. THIS ALONG WITH 25-35 KT OF FLOW AT 850 TO 700 MB MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH SHORT LINE-SEGMENTS THAT OBTAIN A BOWING STRUCTURE. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELL ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LINE. ..BROYLES.. 05/14/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30208765 30078875 30078921 30178960 30468974 30858973 31248949 31968835 32648730 32878687 32748644 32448614 31948590 31478589 30798653 30428706 30208765  780 ACUS03 KWNS 140707 SWODY3 SPC AC 140706 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD PRIMARILY DUE TO INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. NAM/GFS BOTH MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE OH VALLEY...SWD INTO THE FL PENINSULA. THIS SLOW MOVING FEATURE WILL ALLOW A NARROW WEDGE OF WEAK BUOYANCY TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND TO A GREATER DEGREE ACROSS SOUTH FL. INSTABILITY ACROSS THE DELMARVA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONVECTION BUT INADEQUATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER SOUTH...OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA WHERE WLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE SOLENOIDAL CIRCULATIONS FOR ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SCENARIO CERTAINLY WARRANTS AT LEAST A 5% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE GIVEN THAT 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH MINUS 12-14C ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..DARROW.. 05/14/2011  939 ACUS48 KWNS 140824 SWOD48 SPC AC 140823 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 VALID 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN ACROSS TX INTO OK AND PERHAPS EVEN KS BY MID-LATE WEEK AS LARGE SCALE HIGH LEVEL FLOW RELUCTANTLY FORCES RIDGE TO NUDGE SLIGHTLY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WITH TIME CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ATOP RETREATING SFC ANTICYCLONE. WHILE A FEW SEVERE TSTMS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE WITHIN THIS PATTERN THERE IS SOME RELUCTANCE TO INTRODUCE A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF RIDGE DISPLACEMENT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 05/14/2011  813 ACUS01 KWNS 141247 SWODY1 SPC AC 141246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ORE/WA/ID... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND EAST GA... AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS HAVE SLOWLY WEAKENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...BUT A FEW AREAS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY. ...UPPER OH VALLEY... MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RATHER WIDEPSREAD CLOUDS OVER IND/OH/KY/WV IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THOSE AREAS THAT SEE BROKEN SUNSHINE LATER TODAY. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THE DETAILS OF WHERE THAT WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTACT BASED ON 12Z RAOBS AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW. AREAS THAT RECEIVE A FEW HOURS OF DIABATIC HEATING WILL SEE AN INCREASING RISK OF STRONG UPDRAFTS AND THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ...CAROLINAS INTO GA... THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER GA/EAST TN AND IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD. ALL MODELS TEND TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES INTO EAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE LESS VIGOROUS THAN YESTERDAY IN THIS REGION...BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...ORE/WA/ID... WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD AND AFFECTING THE WEST COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST STATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ORE/WESTERN ID AND TRACK QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 05/14/2011  103 ACUS01 KWNS 141614 SWODY1 SPC AC 141613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS SWD TO NERN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF WA/OR/ID...... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW LOWER OH VALLEY DRIFTS EWD ACROSS SRN IL/IND AS THE OVERALL ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS SLOWLY WEAKEN. TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW INTO GULF STATES ROTATES NEWD TO MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES EWD FROM CURRENT LOCATION ERN KY/TN TO SERN AL ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG COLD UPPER LOW OFF OREGON COAST WILL DEVELOP ESEWD TOWARD NRN CA TONIGHT. VERY STRONG SLY MID/UPPER FLOW PAC NW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY E OF CASCADES. ...ERN CAROLINAS SWD TO NERN FL... ONGOING STRONG SFC HEATING ERN NC WILL QUICKLY RAISE MLCAPES TO AOA 1200 J/KG WITH WEAKENING CINH. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREA GENERALLY LESS THAN 7C/KM...STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM MID AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND S/WV TROUGH. PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY SEEMS TO BE WIND DAMAGE AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS. HAIL SIZE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR/UNDER SEVERE LIMITS GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR AND MOIST PROFILES. HAVE REDUCED THE SEVERE THREAT VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY UPPER LOW GIVEN THE WEAKENING SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MANY AREAS...THOSE REACHING/EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED. ...ORE/WA/ID... THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH/COLD LOW IS MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL BE NEAR THE NRN CA/SRN OR COAST BY 12Z SUN. SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST STATES THRU TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ORE/WESTERN ID BY MID AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS AND MLCAPE CLIMBS TO AOA 500 J/KG. STORMS WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY NWD UNDER A STRONG SLY JET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. STEEP LOW.MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. ..HALES/ROGERS.. 05/14/2011  291 ACUS01 KWNS 141649 SWODY1 SPC AC 141647 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS SWD TO NERN FL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF WA/OR/ID...... CORRECTED FOR REMOVAL OF A COUPLE ERRONEOUS THUNDER LINES ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW LOWER OH VALLEY DRIFTS EWD ACROSS SRN IL/IND AS THE OVERALL ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS SLOWLY WEAKEN. TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW INTO GULF STATES ROTATES NEWD TO MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES EWD FROM CURRENT LOCATION ERN KY/TN TO SERN AL ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG COLD UPPER LOW OFF OREGON COAST WILL DEVELOP ESEWD TOWARD NRN CA TONIGHT. VERY STRONG SLY MID/UPPER FLOW PAC NW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY E OF CASCADES. ...ERN CAROLINAS SWD TO NERN FL... ONGOING STRONG SFC HEATING ERN NC WILL QUICKLY RAISE MLCAPES TO AOA 1200 J/KG WITH WEAKENING CINH. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREA GENERALLY LESS THAN 7C/KM...STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM MID AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND S/WV TROUGH. PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY SEEMS TO BE WIND DAMAGE AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS. HAIL SIZE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR/UNDER SEVERE LIMITS GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR AND MOIST PROFILES. HAVE REDUCED THE SEVERE THREAT VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY UPPER LOW GIVEN THE WEAKENING SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MANY AREAS...THOSE REACHING/EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED. ...ORE/WA/ID... THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH/COLD LOW IS MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL BE NEAR THE NRN CA/SRN OR COAST BY 12Z SUN. SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST STATES THRU TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ORE/WESTERN ID BY MID AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS AND MLCAPE CLIMBS TO AOA 500 J/KG. STORMS WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY NWD UNDER A STRONG SLY JET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. STEEP LOW.MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. ..HALES.. 05/14/2011  967 ACUS11 KWNS 141702 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141702 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-141900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN SC...ERN NC INTO EXTREME SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 141702Z - 141900Z MULTICELL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA. A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STRONG DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA. LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION...LOW 80S SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE RESULTING IN 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. WV AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...AND FURTHER DIABATIC WARMING WILL LIKELY ERODE THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND SUBTLE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. MODEST 20-30 KT SWLY FLOW EXISTS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. ..DIAL.. 05/14/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34737952 35747796 36487717 36737634 36557600 35737589 35137632 34187840 33847964 34737952  926 ACUS02 KWNS 141721 SWODY2 SPC AC 141721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NOAM THIS PERIOD...WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WEST...A SECOND OVER THE EAST...AND A RIDGE TO REMAIN ROUGHLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.S. AND CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES NEWD ACROSS CA/NV AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A WEAKER LOW SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WHERE HEATING CAN OCCUR...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD...ACCUMULATION OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW 30 TO 40 KT FROM THE SW ATOP THE WARM SECTOR...POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION EXISTS WHERE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAN EVOLVE. THEREFORE...LOW PROBABILITY /5%/ THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND APPEARS WARRANTED INTO EARLY EVENING. ...S FL... AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG PRIMARILY THE E COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE FLOW ALOFT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELL ORGANIZATION APPEARS TO EXIST -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY /5%/ THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 05/14/2011  165 ACUS11 KWNS 141825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141825 IDZ000-ORZ000-141930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0785 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ORE...FAR WRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 141825Z - 141930Z CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN ORE AND FAR WRN ID IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN ORE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL INCREASES. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELD HAS FIRMED UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN ORE AND SWRN ID...WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S-LOWER 70S AND WEAK INHIBITION HAVE ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. ONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS FAR NERN ORE...WHERE PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DELAYED HEATING...AND COULD LIMIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING CLOSED DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 350 MI W OF EKA...WHILE A WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE PIVOTS NWD INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE OVER A BROAD AREA...EVENTUALLY YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG. DESPITE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...MODERATELY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 30-40 KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..ROGERS.. 05/14/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR... LAT...LON 44411669 43321633 42031674 42001946 42031995 44092010 45611979 45911932 45891777 45701718 44411669  178 ACUS11 KWNS 141831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141831 FLZ000-141930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 141831Z - 141930Z STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL FL INCLUDING ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SEA BREEZE THAT HAS MOVED INLAND...WHILE OTHER STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINE FROM NRN FL SWD ALONG THE WRN COAST NEAR TAMPA. STRONG HEATING /TEMPERATURES AROUND 90/ OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY HAS BOOSTED MLCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NUMEROUS CELL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MERGERS AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY/BOUNDARIES ACROSS CNTRL FL. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...BOUNDARY/CELL INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SOME OF THE STORMS BRIEFLY ATTAINING SEVERE LEVELS. STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN LINE OF STORMS. ..DIAL.. 05/14/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 26268126 27328245 28888229 29028106 27028044 26268126  514 ACUS01 KWNS 142001 SWODY1 SPC AC 141959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN VA AND THE CAROLINAS SWD INTO E CENTRAL GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN OREGON AND VICINITY... ...SRN VA/CAROLINAS/ERN GA... SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE ERN U.S. ATTM...AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE LOWER AND MID OH VALLEY. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION...INSTABILITY -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN NC/SC -- REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER/MULTICELL STORMS...AND ASSOCIATED THREATS FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...ERN OREGON AND VICINITY... STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NV...ERN OREGON...AND SRN NV ATTM AS A SHORT-WAVE FEATURE ALOFT ROTATES NWD ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE LOW. WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THIS AREA...EXPECT STORM DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS FROM E-W ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH GREATEST CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION INDICATED ACROSS ERN OREGON -- WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. EXPECT THREATS FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. ...FL... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS FL ATTM...WITH ONE BAND OF STORMS MOVING EWD/OFFSHORE ACROSS ERN FL AND A SECOND BAND MOVING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL/W CENTRAL PENINSULA. WHILE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...REMAINING THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE. ..GOSS.. 05/14/2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011/ CORRECTED FOR REMOVAL OF A COUPLE ERRONEOUS THUNDER LINES ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW LOWER OH VALLEY DRIFTS EWD ACROSS SRN IL/IND AS THE OVERALL ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS SLOWLY WEAKEN. TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW INTO GULF STATES ROTATES NEWD TO MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES EWD FROM CURRENT LOCATION ERN KY/TN TO SERN AL ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG COLD UPPER LOW OFF OREGON COAST WILL DEVELOP ESEWD TOWARD NRN CA TONIGHT. VERY STRONG SLY MID/UPPER FLOW PAC NW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY E OF CASCADES. ...ERN CAROLINAS SWD TO NERN FL... ONGOING STRONG SFC HEATING ERN NC WILL QUICKLY RAISE MLCAPES TO AOA 1200 J/KG WITH WEAKENING CINH. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREA GENERALLY LESS THAN 7C/KM...STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM MID AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND S/WV TROUGH. PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY SEEMS TO BE WIND DAMAGE AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS. HAIL SIZE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR/UNDER SEVERE LIMITS GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR AND MOIST PROFILES. HAVE REDUCED THE SEVERE THREAT VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY UPPER LOW GIVEN THE WEAKENING SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD COVER. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MANY AREAS...THOSE REACHING/EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED. ...ORE/WA/ID... THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH/COLD LOW IS MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL BE NEAR THE NRN CA/SRN OR COAST BY 12Z SUN. SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST STATES THRU TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ORE/WESTERN ID BY MID AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS AND MLCAPE CLIMBS TO AOA 500 J/KG. STORMS WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY NWD UNDER A STRONG SLY JET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. STEEP LOW.MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.  642 ACUS11 KWNS 142021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142021 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-142145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC THROUGH ERN NC AND SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302... VALID 142021Z - 142145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302 CONTINUES. THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A RESERVOIR OF 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINING FROM ERN NC INTO SERN VA. SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING BOWING SEGMENT OVER E-CNTRL NC MOVING NWD. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MIGHT ALSO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY FARTHER NW AS OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY MERGES WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER WAKE COUNTY. OTHERWISE CLUSTERS OF STORMS IN NERN SC AND INTO SERN VA WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ..DIAL.. 05/14/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34337996 35757873 36877804 37207746 36877643 35837595 35057647 34137830 33777948 34337996  536 ACUS11 KWNS 142031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142030 SCZ000-GAZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...SRN/CNTRL SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 142030Z - 142100Z A SMALL MULTICELL CLUSTER CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER ERN GA HAS RECENTLY DISPLAYED BOWING CHARACTERISTICS...SUGGESTIVE OF A DMGG WIND THREAT. THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED EWD PROPAGATION INTO SRN/CNTRL SC. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER E MAY ALSO POSE A LOCAL DMGG WIND/HAIL THREAT. A WW WILL BE COORDINATED WITH LOCAL OFFICES SHORTLY. ..ROGERS.. 05/14/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 32908051 32608095 32468144 32158277 32428306 33148313 33988302 34348233 34408140 34168060 33408043 32908051  735 ACUS11 KWNS 142206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142205 GAZ000-FLZ000-142300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE NRN FL PANHANDLE AND SERN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 142205Z - 142300Z STORMS WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN FL PANHANDLE AND SERN GA...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR A WW ISSUANCE. AT 2200Z...STRONG STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR VDI TO SOUTH OF VLD. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVE MOIST PLUME OF MOISTURE FEEDING THIS CONVECTION FROM THE NERN GULF. THIS MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30 TO 40 KT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS EAST OF A 30 SSE VDI TO EAST OF GNV LINE STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THEREFORE AS STORMS MOVE INTO THIS MORE STABLE AIR MASS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. ..IMY.. 05/14/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 30538410 30638346 31758293 31968252 31868221 31428219 29988233 29158288 30058402 30538410  435 ACUS11 KWNS 142245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142244 SCZ000-GAZ000-142345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0544 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL GA AND SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 304... VALID 142244Z - 142345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 304 CONTINUES. AT 2240Z...A THUNDERSTORM LINE WAS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 25 KT INTO SRN SC AND THROUGH E CENTRAL GA. THE STORMS ON THE NRN END OF THE LINE MOVING INTO SRN SC HAVE WEAKENED AS THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN AIR MASS THAT WAS STABILIZED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. WHILE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LESS THAN EARLIER. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE GREATER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GA AND THESE STORMS HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..IMY.. 05/14/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 31308141 31998253 32098269 32978178 33448158 33638087 33677910 32787898 32218054 31308141  978 ACUS11 KWNS 142254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142253 IDZ000-ORZ000-150000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0553 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ORE / PARTS OF THE IDAHO TREASURE VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303... VALID 142253Z - 150000Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303 CONTINUES. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS ERN ORE AND INTO THE IDAHO TREASURE VALLEY. AN ISOLD REPORT OF SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E PACIFIC MOVING TOWARDS THE N-CNTRL CA COAST WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT /ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS/ SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NWRN NV AND SERN QUAD OF ORE. SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT HAVE LED TO SCTD STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH PW VALUES AOA 2/3RDS INCH. POCKETS OF UNDISTURBED AIR FROM ONGOING STORMS THE PAST FEW HOURS CONTINUE TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE FURTHER. IT IS HERE WHERE STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC WITH INCREASING LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /35 KTS AT 6 KM AGL FLOW VIA CBX VAD/ WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..SMITH.. 05/14/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT... LAT...LON 42151905 43711968 45522008 45711717 42621569 42151905  373 ACUS11 KWNS 142333 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142332 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-150030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0632 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC THROUGH ERN NC AND SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302... VALID 142332Z - 150030Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302 CONTINUES. WHILE WW EXPIRES AT 00Z...THOUGH AN HOUR OR TWO EXTENSION IN TIME IS POSSIBLE. STORM OUTFLOWS HAVE CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY STABILIZE THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE WW...EXCEPT FOR FAR ERN NC AND EXTREME SERN VA. STRONGEST CLUSTER OF STORMS WERE LOCATED BETWEEN ORF AND RIC...BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT NWD ACROSS A WARM FRONT IN SRN VA...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES STABILIZING FROM STORM OUTFLOWS. UNTIL THAT TIME...THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WIND DAMAGE. OTHER STORMS WERE LOCATED IN PORTIONS OF SRN NC AND FAR NERN SC...BUT THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WAS STABILIZED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NON-SEVERE. ..IMY.. 05/14/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... LAT...LON 33907777 33948027 37597771 37527744 36947627 36537589 35607619 33907777