390 FXUS63 KFGF 121756 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Probabilities of 1 inch of rain or more is over 70% 18z Thursday to 18z Friday for far SE ND into west central MN - Risk of strong or severe storms looks more on Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Clouds and precipitation across our southern counties continues to increase, although most of the rain has so far stayed well south of the I-94 corridor. There will continue to be fairly high precipitation chances into the afternoon as the upper level shortwave in northeastern SD moves east. UPDATE Issued at 1026 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Starting to get some light rain pushing into far southern portions of Sargent, Richland, and Grant counties. Impacts look pretty minimal at this point but will continue to monitor for the potential for heavier rain. Adjusted POPs a bit for current trends, but no huge changes to what we had going. UPDATE Issued at 654 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Confidence in how this rain system will evolve and rain amounts remain much lower than usual for a system within 24 hours. 06z ECMWF shifts main rain south a bit and HRRR/RAP and high res Canadian are also a bit more south now more into northeast SD into St Cloud vs in our far south fcst area. Something to watch unfold today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 ...Synopsis... We will be entering a period when forecast confidence will be low due to the timing differences, strengths and track of individual 500 mb short waves that will move through predominately westerly 500 mb flow across the northern tier of the U.S. Initially the track of these short waves are more across South Dakota into southern Minnesota but early next week the track of these will be farther north as 500 mb ridge builds and the northern edge of instability creeps north, this is especially true Monday, which overall now appears to the day to watch for any severe potential. ...Heavy Rainfall possible this afternoon into tonight southeast ND into west central MN... 500 mb short wave is over southern Montana near Billings. It will move east into tonight along the ND/SD border into central MN. The 850 mb low will follow same track or just a tad south thru far northern SD into central MN. These tracks are a bit farther north than prev model fcsts were showing. PWATs increase to 1.50 inch near the 850 mb low track and there is 40 kts 850 mb winds bringing up richer 850 mb moisture into western MN late today/evening. Thus conditions are more favorable now that a band of heavy rainfall will develop and be centered near the 850 mb low track....far northeast SD/far southeast ND then east into central MN. Probs from NBM and WPC QPF show highest rainfall amounts 2-3 inches in that zone from Sisseton east thru Elbow Lake MN to Little Falls MN. The northern edge of the rain area still looks like about Highway 2 with, with only very light rain chances north of there to the border. Conditions going into this rain event are such that the area can withstand a steady rain giving up to 2 inches in that small 60 mile zone. ...Weekend into Next Week T-storm chances... Looking over model data, ensembles, severe chances via CSU and probs for MU and surface CAPE...it looks like the main focus for any strong or severe storms will be Monday, not Sunday. Saturday itself looks like a very low shower chance day. Sunday has a chance for a few showers or t-storms....but main wave now appears to move thru ND/northwest MN Monday and this time period from 18z Monday to 00z Tuesday shows prob for more than 1000 j/kg sfc CAPE over 70 pct into SE ND along with sufficient bulk shear 0-6 km 35 kts or so. There is a tight gradient northward on how far instability will get...focus seems to be SE ND/SD/MN border area focused 21z Mon to 00z Tue. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 VFR conditions with mainly mid and high clouds (and a bit of smoke aloft) so far. Conditions will deteriorate as rain and more moisture push towards the TAF sites later this afternoon and overnight. Ceilings will drop to MVFR and then perhaps IFR at some sites. Rain is most likely at KFAR and KBJI but have at least VCSH at all airports. Some improvement by the end of the period, but not all the way back to VFR for most locations. Winds will increase out of the east, with some gusts up to around 20 kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle/JR DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...JR