393 FXUS63 KDDC 120505 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1205 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly cooler today and tomorrow, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to near 90. - Severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday, especially Friday, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. - Warm conditions return over the weekend into early next week, with the classic June MCSs possible Saturday and Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at midday reveal a rather flat synoptic pattern over the northern CONUS, with a weak shortwave trough centered over the southern plains. At the surface, weak low pressure was noted over the central plains, which has yielded breezy southerly winds across southwest KS today. Despite the warm advection and strong solar insolation, temperatures will be a touch cooler this afternoon owing to slightly lower 1000-500-mb thickness, with highs in the upper 80s/near 90. Overnight, winds will relax as the boundary layer decouples, and partly cloudy skies will allow temperatures to drop into the low/mid 60s by Thursday morning. Daytime Thursday, guidance begins to eject the southern plains trough northeastward towards the Ozarks, showing modest strengthening in the process. As a result, 1000-500-mb thickness will decrease further, which will shave another few degrees off afternoon temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Later Thursday afternoon and evening, latest HREF members suggest thunderstorms that develop over the higher terrain in CO may reach far western KS amidst the increasing northwesterly mid- level flow. While confidence is not high in this scenario, sufficient instability and shear will exist for a marginal severe threat, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. This thinking aligns with the latest Day 2 Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, which outlines a marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) across our far west and northwest zones. Medium range ensembles agree the upper level trough will continue northeast daytime Friday as longwave ridging begins to rebuild over the southwestern CONUS. In response, 500-mb heights will be on the upswing, reversing the cooling trend with afternoon highs rising into the low 90s. Another, more robust opportunity for severe convection will exist Friday afternoon and evening as thunderstorms develop in northeast CO and adjacent areas and travel southeastward towards our area. Given the tightening 500-mb height gradient between the building ridge and ejecting trough, deep-layer shear will be stronger within an unstable airmass, supportive of a longer-lasting and more organized convective complex capable of damaging winds gusts and marginally severe hail. The Storm Prediction Center's Day 3 outlook has nearly our entire CWA outlined in a slight risk (Level 2 of 5), which appears appropriate. Over the weekend and into early next week, medium range ensembles suggest the upper level longwave ridge will continue to build over New Mexico, maintaining northwesterly flow atop the central plains. Therefore, increasing temperatures will be favored. Additionally, the ECMWF EPS and GEFS meteograms hint at further rounds of convection Saturday night and Sunday night, likely in the form of convective complexes moving southeast out of CO once again. This evolution is frequently observed in June, however mesoscale details will dictate where and how strong any thunderstorms will be. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late afternoon. Southeast winds around 10 to 20kt are expected to persist through late Thursday afternoon as a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Springer AVIATION...JJohnson