637 
FXZS60 NSTU 120124
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
224 PM SST Sun Feb 11 2018

.Short term...
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...An active monsoon trough across
Manu'a will remain nearly stationary through short term. This weather
phenomenon will bring strong and gusty winds across the area,
keeping NW winds up to 20 to 30 kt through Monday night, then
diminish to near 20 to 25 kt on Tuesday morning, then drop to 20 kt
by Tuesday night. This situation reflects the connection of the 
monsoon trough to Hurricane Gita which now lies over 500 miles SW 
of Tutuila moving toward Tonga through tonight. Computer models
show strong wind gradients in association with the monsoon trough
corresponding to Gita over the next 12 to 18 hours. For this
reason, a Wind Advisory has been extended until 7 AM SST Tuesday
to mirror this expected situation.

.Long term...
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...As NW winds and showers taper off
Wednesday morning, a surface ridge from upstream will drive 
toward American Samoa. This will provide a nice break in showers 
and winds to become light and variable up to 10 kt starting Thursday
afternoon. Perhaps part of Savaii and Swains will endure gentle to
moderate northerly winds through long term. As a result...anticipate
heavier rainfall activities to the west and north of Upolu and
Savaii past the midweek. Latent heating will enhance isolated to 
scattered mid-morning to afternoon showers through the rest of 
the week.

&&

.Marine...Strong monsoonal trough induced winds upstream will 
continue to generate hazardous swells and surfs. PACIOOS buoy near
Aunuu shows short period N swells of 10 to 12 ft. FNMOC Wave 
Watch III kept seas up to 12 to 15 ft through Monday morning, 
then decline to 9 to 12 ft Monday night, then drop to about 2 to 3
ft by Tuesday. Perhaps seas and surfs will be much higher along 
the SW through NE shores of American Samoa than south shores over
the next several days. For this reason, the continuation of a 
high surf advisory is mandatory to reflect the expected situation.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A Wind Advisory has been extended through 7 AM SST Tuesday.
.A High Surf Advisory has been extended through 3 PM SST Tuesday.
.A Flash Flood Watch has been extended through 3 PM SST Monday.
.A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

&&

$$

CB