962 
FXZS60 NSTU 110158
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
258 PM SST Sat Feb 10 2018

.Short term...
.TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A very strong monsoon trough
combined with the onset of Tropical Depression 08F/98P will bring
increasing heavy showers...thunderstorms and the potential of
dangerous gusty winds through early Sunday morning. The afternoon
raob data reported 49 kt (56 mph) at 925 mb (near 2500 feet),
but stronger winds near higher elevation and dangerous gusts will
be felt near foothills through tonight. Hurricane GITA (07F/97P)
was centered over 460 miles SE of Tutuila moving toward Tonga
Islands to south of Fiji over the next couple of days. Thus,
anticipate numerous to occasional showers with locally heavy rain
and thunderstorms moving across the region, then diminishing on
Monday. Northwest winds of 30 to 45 mph with gusts to over 58 mph
will diminish to 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts by Sunday 
afternoon.

.Long term...
.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GFS models struggle to follow the
location and movement of the monsoon trough after Wednesday night.
Hence, this monsoon trough will remain near Manu'a while moving 
eastward as another developing tropical system will emerge well 
southeast and within the monsoon trough. Thus...wind speeds are
expected to diminish to 15 to 25 mph on Tuesday... then decline 
to 10 to 20 mph on Wednesday before becoming light and variable 
Wednesday afternoon. Hence...anticipate isolated to scattered 
showers over the next several days.

&&

.Marine...Strong northwest winds associated with the monsoon 
trough combined with swells generated by Hurricane GITA will 
elevate very dangerous sea conditions through Monday. The risk
for strong rip currents and deadly surfs are high. Sea conditions
of 15 to 18 ft will continue into Sunday afternoon, then subside 
to 12 to 15 ft on Sunday night through Monday night, then 
gradually subside to 9 to 12 ft by Tuesday. Issuance of high surf
warning is mandatory to reflect this expected situation. Also...as
35 to 40 kt winds continue into Sunday morning...a Gale Warning
will continue for American Samoa waters.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Gale Warning for all American Samoa waters through 12 PM SST
Sunday. 
.High Wind Warning for all American Samoa extended through 12 PM
SST Sunday.
.High Surf Warning has been extended until 7 AM SST Tuesday. 
.Flash Flood Watch through 3 PM SST Sunday. 

&&

$$

CB